About
The Scenario Compass provides a curated ensemble of science-based scenarios vetted for consistency with recent global trends and presented in a consistent, accessible format.
Key questions about our platform
To help you get the most out of the Scenario Compass, we’ve gathered answers to some of the most common questions about what it offers, how scenarios are defined, and where the information comes from.
What information does the Scenario Compass Explorer provide?
The Scenario Compass gives an easy entry point to science-based global, regional, and national climate change mitigation scenarios.
Every scenario goes through a transparent quality-control process.
For more see: How are scenarios quality-controlled?
What is a scenario?
A scenario describes one possible future, modeled through consistent assumptions about energy, land use, and other socio-economic factors.
Each scenario in the Scenario Compass represents a set of interlinked quantitative simulations.
Which sources does the Scenario Compass rely on?
Most scenarios come from peer-reviewed research; others come from working papers of report.
Each scenario clearly lists its source within the Scenario Compass.
Further information & Resources
AR6 and beyond - which scenarios are available?
This resource combines scenarios from the latest IPCC assessment (Byers et al., 2023) and several recently published studies, including.
- NAVIGATE - see for example van Heerden et al. (2025)
- SHAPE - see for example Soergel et al. (2024)
- NGFS Phase V – see for example Richters et al. (2024)
- GENIE – see for example Gidden et al (2023)
Want your scenario to be featured?
Learn how to submit your scenario here.
Learn more
- IPCC AR6 WG3: Scenarios and Modelling Methods- provides a comprehensive overview of scenarios and modelling methods used by Working Group 3 of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).
- Senses Toolkit – provides a beginner primer.
The Scenario Compass Initiative
This website and the scenario ensemble are a product of the Scenario Compass Initiative (SCI), which brings togethers producers (modelers) and users of climate mitigation scenarios.
The SCI is coordinated by a Steering Committee, guided by an Advisory Board, and supported by six scientific working groups:
- Energy: Focuses on developing energy-related vetting and evaluation criteria
- Land: Focuses on developing land-related vetting and evaluation criteria
- Downscaling: Transforms aggregated scenario data into country level information (first product to be released in summer 2026)
- Emissions and Climate: Assesses key climate characteristics of scenarios
- Methodology: Works to improve scenario categorization and methodology
- Database Working Group: Implements data curation and infrastructure development
Meet the SCI-team
Leon Clarke
Bezos Earth Fund
Steering Committee (Co-Chair)
Keywan Riahi
International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis
Steering Committee (Co-Chair)
Bas van Ruijven
International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis
Downscaling Working Group (Lead)
Chris Smith
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Emissions & Climate Working Group (Lead)
Daniel Huppmann
International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis
Database Working Group (Lead)
Detlef van Vuuren
Environmental Assessment Agency
Steering Committee
Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Steering Committee
Gunnar Luderer
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Energy Working Group (Lead)
Isabela Tagomori
Environmental Assessment Agency
Methodology Working Group
James Edmonds
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Steering Committee
Jan Sigurd Fuglestvedt
Center for International Climate Research
Advisory Board
Joeri Rogelj
Imperial College London
Methodology Working Group (Lead)
Kelly Levin
System Change Lab
Steering Committee
Marcus Thomson
Sequoia Climate Foundation
Advisory Board
Mark Dekker
Environmental Assessment Agency
Methodology Working Group (Lead)
Massimo Tavoni
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Steering Committee
Niklas Höhne
Climate Action Tracker
Steering Committee
Philipp Verpoort
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Energy Working Group (Lead)
Piera Patrizio
Science Based Targets Initiative
Advisory Board
Roberto Schaeffer
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
Steering Committee
Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan
Kyoto University
Steering Committee
Seth Monteith
Climate Works
Steering Committee
Stephanie Roe
World Wildlife Fund
Advisory Board
Taryn Fransen
World Resource Institute
Advisory Board
Tomoko Hasegawa
Ritsumeikan University
Land Working Group (Lead)
Zebedee Nicholls
International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis
Emissions & Climate Working Group (Lead)
Acknowledgements
The Scenario Compass Initiative is grateful for the generous support from the Bezos Earth Fund.
Guided Exploration
Answer critical questions about the interplay between land use, climate goals, and food security.