About

The Scenario Compass provides a curated ensemble of science-based scenarios vetted for consistency with recent global trends and presented in a consistent, accessible format.

Understanding the Scenario Compass

Key questions about our platform

To help you get the most out of the Scenario Compass, we’ve gathered answers to some of the most common questions about what it offers, how scenarios are defined, and where the information comes from.

What information does the Scenario Compass Explorer provide?

The Scenario Compass gives an easy entry point to science-based global, regional, and national climate change mitigation scenarios.
Every scenario goes through a transparent quality-control process.
For more see: How are scenarios quality-controlled?

What is a scenario?

A scenario describes one possible future, modeled through consistent assumptions about energy, land use, and other socio-economic factors.
Each scenario in the Scenario Compass represents a set of interlinked quantitative simulations.

Which sources does the Scenario Compass rely on?

Most scenarios come from peer-reviewed research; others come from working papers of report.
Each scenario clearly lists its source within the Scenario Compass.

Further information & Resources

AR6 and beyond - which scenarios are available?

This resource combines scenarios from the latest IPCC assessment (Byers et al., 2022) with several model comparison projects and recently published studies, including

Submit your scenarios and emissions pathways to the Scenario Compass!

The Scenario Compass will be continuously updated with the latest scientific publications on emissions pathways.
You can submit your scenarios via the Scenario Compass Sandbox.

Learn more

IPCC AR6 WG3: Scenarios and Modelling Methods- provides a comprehensive overview of scenarios and modelling methods used by Working Group 3 of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).
Senses Toolkit – provides a beginner primer.

The Scenario Compass Initiative

This website and the scenario ensemble are a product of the Scenario Compass Initiative (SCI), which brings togethers producers (modelers) and users of climate mitigation scenarios.

The SCI is coordinated by a Steering Committee, guided by an Advisory Board, and supported by six scientific working groups:

Energy: Focuses on developing energy-related vetting and evaluation criteria
Land: Focuses on developing land-related vetting and evaluation criteria
Downscaling: Transforms aggregated scenario data into country level information (first product to be released in summer 2026)
Emissions and Climate: Assesses key climate characteristics of scenarios
Methodology: Works to improve scenario categorization and methodology
Database Working Group: Implements data curation and infrastructure development